Art by Valentin Pavageau (link)

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Okay I’m going to do it. I’m going to make some insurance predictions for 2022.

I’ve been inspired by all of the posts and tweets and I want in on the action. 

But here’s the thing (of course there was always going to be “a thing"):

Some annual predictions can feel, to me at least, a bit like horoscopes. Often they are well-crafted and full of keywords, but upon closer reading, reveal themselves as vague and easy to generalize. (I'm a Leo btw).

Or let me put this another way, and (very loosely) paraphrase Ronnie Coleman, everybody wants to be a thought leader, but nobody wants to publish no specific predictions! 

So with this in mind then, I’ve got three (3) predictions for insurance in 2022, and I’m going to try to make each one specific.

(Also I've made my best guess on what I think I'll mute on Twitter this year).

Let’s get into it.

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1️⃣ 2022 will be a very good year for a very few embedded insurance players. It will not be a good year for the rest

2021 was a great year for embedded insurance companies. There were big launches and big funding rounds and big complimentary posts from thought leaders. And looking ahead at 2022, it’s clear that the “embedded insurance” content machine is still running at full speed.

My bet though is that the scarcity of viable* clients is going to reveal itself this year as the existential threat that will upend the nascent embedded insurance industry.

*("viable," to me, means companies with large, high-intent user bases, low CAC, and existing products that are truly relevant to insurance)

What will this look like? In 2022 we’ll see a number of embedded provider pivots, 2-3 acquisitions and roll-ups (likely at flat or worse pricing), and a few big, flashy embedded insurance contracts.

The companies that win these contracts in 2022 will go on to be the winners in the embedded insurance space for the next 10 years.

‍Bonus: I think we’ll see one D2C insurtech pivot to an embedded product this year. It will not go well.

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2️⃣ A major challenger bank will launch an insurance product, with a twist

Chime has an insurance product manager posting live (h/t Coverager), Revolut announced a substantial partnership with Chubb, and if my LinkedIn inbox is anything to go by, pretty much every challenger bank is looking for an insurance GM.

Clearly “insurance = 📈” is circled and underlined on a lot of whiteboards in a lot of fintech offices.

Does this mean that these companies have a real insurance strategy? No, it does not.

Does it mean they are responding to obvious affinities, revenue opportunities, and competitive pressures? Yes, it does.

So yes, it seems obvious that multiple challenger banks will announce insurance product launches in 2022. Fine. But what's the prediction? 

It is this: A major challenger bank will launch a big, splashy community-based insurance program.

Wait what? What I am predicting is that, rather than partner with a conventionally structured insurer in 2022, a challenger bank will announce a “protection product” that is based on a community cost-sharing model (think Eusoh).

My best guess is that it’ll be something to do with either device protection or pet coverage. I think the community-first and regulation-light benefits of these sorts of programs will convince a challenger bank on the hunt for differentiation.

P.S. If a partnership like this already exists, don't tell me, I can't take it.

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3️⃣ We’ll see regulatory action…wait for it…against an incumbent

It’s no secret to the people who know me (professionally) that I am very interested in insurance regulation and regulatory philosophy.

Over the last few years the world and the US have gone through a lot of change, and I think some of these changes set up the conditions for a newly energetic regulatory environment.

Specifically, we have a new political atmosphere — one that is more supportive of enforcement activity — and an ongoing and persistent change to the way people work, live, and commute (COVID-19: still a thing!). 

Taking these two big data points then, and bumping them up against some other observations — like the responses to our survey that indicate that 75% of people didn't realize they received any COVD-19-related insurance discounts and 54% of people expect further discounts — leads me to think that, in 2022, consumer frustration and regulatory energy are going to meet in spectacular fashion. ‍

But what’s the prediction? In 2022, we’re going to see a large, multi-state action against a top-15, incumbent insurer, likely related to insufficient COVID-19 discounts, or maybe something to do with the interaction of pricing and increasingly severe weather events across the US.

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🙅 And what I'll be muting on Twitter in 2022

In 2021, for peace of mind and stability of soul, I had to mute a few words and accounts. It never comes from a place of anger, but simply, an instinct for self-preservation.

Sorry "metaverse" and "miami" — there may have been some great content about each of you on Twitter last year, but 1) I doubt it and 2) even if there was, I didn't see it.

So what will I be muting in 2022?

It's hard to say for sure of course, but I have some thoughts: 

• "NFT" — I just...can't anymore. I tried, I did, but I'm tapping out
• The whole Greek alphabet. I'm going full court press on this. I don't want to know about it
• "Big Tech." Yes some tech companies may see may more enforcement this year, but I will not be seeing the annoying tantrums about it on Twitter
• "Bradley Beal." This is mostly an emotional self-preservation strategy as a Knicks fan heading in 2022 free agency